World leaders have been keeping their eye on US politics leading up to the midterm elections. “Of course, everybody is watching. It’s great political theatre” said Steven Okun, a trade specialist and the chief executive of APAC Advisors, a Singapore-based consulting firm. Leaders in the Asia Pacific region, where the war in Iran has had the largest effect outside of the Middle East, have been watching especially closely. Prior to the war, the region imported the most Gulf oil and gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines relies on the Gulf for more than 90% of its crude oil imports, and soaring fuel costs have affected some of the poorest countries in the region, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor’s foreign exchange reserves.
The results of the midterm election broke many records, including Democrats winning the overall House popular vote by the largest margin in more than fifty years. It is uncommon that a president trades away so much political support so quickly in American politics. In the upcoming Congress, beginning in January, if Democrats hold Trump accountable through stronger checks and balances, the midterm results could benefit many countries in the Asia Pacific region by reducing foreign policy instability and market volatility. Despite Trump stating that he did not regret initiating the conflict in Iran and that he would have “done it again,” Asian partners and allies are specifically hoping the new Congress enforces more predictable decision-making from the Trump Administration on the war in Iran.
Amongst the Asia region, China has always played a defining role in global policy and economics. The Democratic sweep in the midterm elections will likely have significant implications for the delicate U.S.-China relationship, as Beijing has capitalized on growing international distrust of the United States to quietly advance its strategic interests and expand its global influence. China has refused to comment on the midterm elections, rather saying that the result is an “internal affair,” but Beijing still has a preferred outcome. Chinese analysts have taken the US midterm election results as evidence that the US political system is crumbling, which is dangerous if the United States seeks to remain the preeminent power. China hopes that the United States will be locked into an irreversible decline so that they can continue advancing toward global hegemony.
Politicians and analysts are hoping the new Congress brings more oversight to the Trump Administration as a whole to help lower overall prices, improve market stability and end unnecessary conflicts overseas. Retiring North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis even argued that there will be more pressure put on the US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth after January and that Hegseth would soon face “a reckoning.” Some analysts argue that with more pressure coming from Congress to have a clearer foreign policy approach, Trump may move more quickly to end the war. This would greatly benefit Asia because they rely more on oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf than any other part of the world.
Trump is scheduled to participate in the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations later this month, which will allow global leaders to have a glimpse into how the Trump Administration may approach this new Congress and the myriad of important foreign policy issues that affect their respective regions.