In 2014, Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexing the Crimean Peninsula. Yet, officially, no Russian soldiers took part in this action. Instead, several hundred “little green men” took the peninsula by force, bearing no insignia of nationality, nor official uniform. This was the Wagner Group, an organization of Russian mercenaries contracted by the Russian government. While Wagner played a crucial role in the Russian war in Ukraine, its true impact has been felt via Russian actions in the Sahel and wider Africa. However, following the death of its leader following an attempted 2023 coup, Wagner dissolved, with operations officially ceasing. From its remnants, Africa Corps was founded to continue the mission of expanding Russian state interests in Africa.
While operational in Africa, Russia used the Wagner Group to build connections and curry favor with several autocratic nations in the Sahel, with Wagner taking part in activities including disinformation campaigns during elections, security training for militias and militaries, and direct combat against jihadist organizations. In 2023, before the dissolution of Wagner, it was estimated that there were roughly five thousand Wagner mercenaries in Africa, working to expand Russian access to natural resources and build diplomatic relations. From these efforts, Russia has become a major power broker in Africa.
Africa Corps has filled the void left by the collapse of Wagner by becoming a repackaged version of the old formula. There are, however, notable differences with the main ones being Africa Corps’s less hands-on approach to intervention and its scaling back of operations. Regarding intervention, Africa Corps is much more focussed on training state militaries and in funneling weapons into nations, compared to the previous model of engagement with combatants. Regarding operational scale, Africa Corps has focused its attention squarely on the Sahel and on Libya, dramatically reducing presence in the Horn of Africa. While these changes reduce the scope of the organization, they will likely serve to improve its capacity, ensuring that the Africa Corps sees longer term success than Wagner did.
While seemingly disconnected from the conflict in Ukraine, Africa Corps is playing a key role in Russian state continuation, just as Wagner did before. In 2018, Wagner mercenaries secured access to the Ndassima gold mine, with profits going towards wider Russian interests. This practice has continued with the rise of the Africa Corps. In Mali, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that the Corps’s only two prerogatives were, “protect the junta and protect the mines”. From these resources, Russia is able to continue funding its war in Ukraine, with Wagner and Africa Corps laundering $2.5 billion towards the conflict.
One of the central questions remaining regarding Africa Corps currently is the question of who is at the helm. Founding it in 2014, Yevengny Prigozhin served as leader of Wagner until members of the organization attempted a coup in the summer of 2023, with Prigozhin dying in a plane crash following the resolution of the conflict. Following Prigozhin’s death and the development of Africa Corps, the Russian state appears to have filled the leadership void. Rather than follow the Wagner model of a state contracted mercenary group, Africa Corps now seems to be under direct state guidance as a means of reducing liability to the government. Control under the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry will likely lead to more conservative action, with Africa Corps and all of its actions directly tied to the Russian state.
With all stated, what is next for Africa Corps? The organization is facing increased scrutiny from the international community due to its ties with Russia and with its relationship with Wagner. In 2023, Wagner was found to have perpetrated a series of tortures and extrajudicial murders in Mali and across the Sahel. Additionally, outside of increased international and domestic scrutiny, Africa Corps has scaled back its operations across the continent. Yet, these limitations are more likely to serve the Africa Corps than hinder it. The more limited scope of operations allows for the Corps to maximize its capacity in achieving goals. The organization has recently grown immensely its presence in Mali, with Russia keen on retaining what allies it has. Africa Corps, in the near future, is unlikely to be going anywhere unless there is change in Russia.