In a stunning comeback, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. After losing the first round of voting, Lula was able to take back 51.79% of votes – with the Bolsonaro son having yet to formally concede as of this writing. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party acknowledged the results but believes there remains questions to be answered.
How did he do it? After losing by just two percentage points in the first round, Lula’s campaign sought to boost voter turnout after 33 million people did not vote in round one. A WhatsApp channel called “Lula’s Army” led the effort through sharing videos, promoting hashtags, and actively recruiting users. Followers were tasked with sharing ready-made templates with friends and family along with other avenues to boost Lula’s visibility on social media. Through digital campaigning and grassroots mobilization, the Lula campaign made an undeniable comeback.
Trump’s response? A dismissal and labeling of the results as “rigged”.
For the Trump Administration, Lula’s victory is a loss of a strong ally and control over Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy. To assert dominance over Lula’s progressive policies and criticism of American foreign policy, the Trump Administration has wielded tariffs and sanctions to force the Brazilian president to bend at the knee.
So far, across Latin America, right-wing candidates have come into power with the promise of addressing voter concerns of rising crime, looking to El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele for guidance and winning favor with Trump. To reinforce conservative support, Trump has granted candidates with electoral endorsements, financial bailouts, and military aid pledges.
The election of Bolsonaro would have certainly added to the coalition, which he had promised to join “with great enthusiasm and great honor” as a pitch to voters. Trump’s support for the Bolsonaro family was a key campaign strategy for the senate and one that has not relented despite the loss. Flavio and his family left the country Sunday to be greeted by the U.S. State Department with entry visas.
Lula’s presidency has an uncertain future. Conservative victories across the Brazilian National Congress in the Oct. 4 elections have stifled his attempts at implementing policies and reforms. With a divided country, slow economic growth, public security worries, and a pointed finger from Washington, Lula has a lot of work to do.